Why? Five words: FOX, Monetize, Control, Size, Competition. I predict that MySpace will become much less important in the next 12 months and ultimately loose it's position as #1 social network site (and on-line destination). Think I'm far out. Let's look at what's going on right now with MySpace...
1. FOX. That's right. FOX is the company that puts on people like Bill O'Reilly. Not exactly 2.0. Of course, we all know that FOX is capitalism - pure and simple. The question is: Will the driving forces of capitalism help or hurt the MySpace community? With arrogant people like COO Peter Chernin saying things like this, I'd say there's not much hope for change at FOX.
2. Monetize. That's what it's about at this point. Get used to it. What you can and cannot do will be heavily influenced by Peter asking "can we monetize this or not." This is not always a bad thing, but it's tricky to manage when your "community" is the world.
3. Control. FOX is all about control. The problem is that, as Marc Andreessen's says in this post, "People want freedom." What's good about the Internet is that there are fewer rules - not more.
4. Size. I don't see why most people would want to be part of MySpace. I mean, once people have seen their friends profiles and wasted countless hours adding "friends" they will eventually get tired of it and ask "what am I really getting out of this?" Of course, there's always dating, but that's again something smaller sites can do better. I think this is a big issue for MySpace. Giant "community" makes no sense. Smaller, more specialized, closer-knit interest groups is the future of social networks. Also, as people get more familiar with social networks, they want customization. Smaller players always innovate - MySpace will struggle.
5. Competition. There's too much incentive for too many smart people not to create spaces that are better and more innovative than MySpace. In fact, there are already several that I think do a better job at it than the behemoth. We'll look at a few next week.
If you think I'm really off with this post - great! I'd love to hear your opinion on how MySpace will rule the future.
Update March 11, 2007: And, as expected, MySpace has started to irritate their users with sharp moves such as banning PhotoBucket Videos (post and comments here)
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